www.tert.am: Mr. Oskanian what is your opinion about recent developments in the Armenia-Turkey process?

Vartan Oskanian: My opinion is the same as it was at the start of this process. These documents are the product of miscalculations on both sides.

The Armenian side miscalculated, convinced that:
1.    the Armenia-Turkey border opening is of existential importance for Armenia’s domestic stability and economic development;
2.    it will be easy for Turkey to go counter to Azerbaijan‘s interests
3.    If the document does not contain the words “Treaty of Kars,” “genocide” or “Nagorno Karabakh,” then by utilizing state propaganda mechanisms, it will be possible to convince the Armenian people that the formulations that indeed address those matters are harmless.

The Turkish side miscalculated, convinced that:
1.    the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border is so important for Armenia that Turkey-centric formulations arrived at through clever diplomatic machinations can eventually in fact be executed.
2.    Genocide and other historical issues are solely Diaspora concerns and not of particular interest to those living in Armenia.
3.    a Karabakh resolution is close at hand, any signing the Armenia-Turkey protocols and linking the ratification process to Nagorno Karabakh will serve as additional incentive for the Armenian side to speed up the resolution, or at the very least, return some territories.

Taking into consideration the great importance of normal relations between Armenia and Turkey, there must be a review of this issue and a new approach must be devised. The process toward improved relations will not succeed if it is based on the short-term political interests of the Armenian or Turkish governments, or if they overlook existing political and historical complexities. Such a process must sincerely acknowledge all problems and challenges if the purpose is indeed to achieve real and sustainable rapprochement.