Azerbaijan’s minister of foreign affairs has found generally acceptable the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ new version of the principles for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, proposed last December in Greece. This is the first occasion since 1997 that Baku has found the mediators’ proposal acceptable.
Now, it is Armenia’s turn and it will be difficult for Armenia to say "Yes" to the version that took shape first in Krakow in July 2009, then in Athens at the end of 2009 and then in Sochi on January 25, 2010, because in contrast to the 2007 Madrid proposals, not only is the right of the people of Nagorno Karabakh to self-determination very vague, but in terms of removing the consequences of the conflict, Azerbaijan is at an advantage.
Since 1997, Azerbaijan has either rejected or withheld consent to all settlement proposals; it also rejected the Madrid document presented in 2007. And now, over the course of a mere two years, the mediators have presented proposals which are acceptable to Azerbaijan and unacceptable for Armenia. Refusing the mediators’ proposal comes at a price. And what is very important is who does the rejecting, and on what basis. Especially since proposals are the outcome of a negotiations process, the negotiating sides are equally responsible for the contents of a proposal.
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 Armenia’s double-digit economic decline continues, and is approaching 20 percent. The question in everyone’s mind is how long this drop will continue and whether the government’s policies are effective or sufficient to stop and eventually reverse it.
Today there are two substantial problems with the government’s response to this economic situation. The first is that the government’s guiding document, the budget adopted for 2009, is obsolete. The document is based on 9 percent economic growth while today we are experiencing 18 percent decline. There is a 27 percent discrepancy in the budget. Such a distorted document cannot serve as a blueprint or even a simple guideline for the government’s economic programs.
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The topic of national mobilization is urgent today. Of course, given our size – small territory, small population – and given Turkey’s and Azerbaijan’s enormous capabilities and sophisticated machinery, we have always used all national and international resources albeit with varying intensity, scope, depth and effectiveness, but nevertheless we have used them.
Today, the changing circumstances around us, and the new challenges emerging before us, make the need for this kind of new mobilization more timely and necessary. Let me cite four major reasons for this kind of mobilization at this time.
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The political debate that should have taken place over whether and how Armenia’s delegation to the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly can and should interact with the delegations of Azerbaijan and Turkey has not taken place. Instead, we have been witness to inappropriate – that’s a polite way of saying vulgar and insulting – assessments of the Armenian parliamentarian involved.
One wonders if a male parliamentarian had sought the support of Turkish and Azerbaijani parliamentarians on a resolution regarding Armenia’s domestic issues, how would the political elite have reacted? Parliamentarian Zaruhi Postanjian is a woman, a member of the Zharangutyun (Heritage) party and a vocal, committed human rights advocate. Her political steps can be debated. Her personal life, patriotism and gender ought not.
It is at our peril that Armenia avoids political debate, sidesteps real discussion about the ever-tightening political situation in our region, especially vis-à-vis Armenia’s neighbors. Offending those whose domestic policies are different, drawing fezzes on the heads of those whose policies towards our neighbors is perceived as too tolerant -- all this means foregoing political consensus in favor of imposed policy. There are social implications, too. Striking at the dignity of half of Armenia's population means women and girls will be even less willing and prepared to help build a country.
All because we refuse to get involved in the hard work of debating policy and articulating our vision of our future.
It is a difficult time. What should have been an act of public courage is instead being viewed as an expedient political maneuver.
Most of those arrested and charged with involvement in the public events on and around March 1 and the violence which followed have been released. This would have been welcome, had it taken place in April last year, immediately upon the President’s inauguration. It did not. President Sargsyan took no such step.
Such a step would have been welcome anytime during this difficult, polarized, tense year. It did not happen. President Sargsyan did not resort to declaring amnesty until ‘the public urged him to do so.’ This pretense at public responsiveness came days after a disputed mayoral election, and days before another Council of Europe hearing on Armenia’s democratization processes.
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On June 19, the National Assembly, in a special session voted 98 to one (and three abstentions) to accept the President’s proposal regarding an amnesty for those in prison. Although it is easy to assume that this proposal is aimed at finding a face-saving way to release the opposition leaders who have been detained, it is not at all obvious that this is the final intent of this decision that will apply to those who have been sentenced to five years or less, and are not repeat offenders.
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The first of June is observed as International Children’s Day in many parts of the world. Armenia, too, celebrates its young people and minor citizens on that day, when the public is reminded of its responsibility to protect the rights of children.
This year, Children’s Day fell on the day after the first-ever election for a Yerevan City Council. The run-up to the elections and the voting itself were unfortunately replete with the chronic issues of lack of transparency and voter confidence.
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Armenia-Turkey relations have dominated public discourse over recent months and understandably so. As a result, our attention has strayed from a topic that is at least equally crucial for our national security – Armenia’s economy. The new indicators issued by the Armenian Statistical Service make plain that the economy is in free fall. In the first four months of 2009, our GDP declined 9.7% over the same period last year. There is the danger that this will become double-digit decline. Poverty, which had been palpably declining, will now rise according to World Bank projections. Growing unemployment is becoming more visible. Indeed, a full 40 percent of employers foresee further cuts, according to the Economy and Values Research Center. Armenia is in recession and this can be explained by a series of factors of which the global economic crisis is only one.
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Fifteen years of the longest self-maintained ceasefire in the world offers an unusual opportunity to assess what has happened over this decade and a half and to consider what comes next.
There are two fundamental issues to consider. The first question is whether Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh (and in Armenia) are more secure today than we were when the war stopped. The second issue is what will happen in this no-peace, no-war situation?
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The official statistics released in February simply reiterate the inarguable truth: Armenia is heading towards a recession.
Although these facts are not being hidden, they are not being explained either. The government continues to believe (and rightfully so) in the importance of confidence as a key factor of economic stability and is therefore trying to inspire trust and faith. But it is doing so without basing its oratory and encouragement on economic realities, or without actions which assure the population that steps are being taken to ameliorate the situation.
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